Thursday, October 30, 2008

Who Will Win Which States?



With less than a week away from the election, and the weekend being the blackhole that it is, this is a prime time to make your election bets. Unless Obama slaps a baby on television, or McCain cures cancer over the weekend, the dynamics of the election will be unchanged from now until Nov. 4th. So lets get on to predicticatin'.

  • The West Coast will be all Obama's. The East Coast as south as Virginia will be all Obama.
    I don't see North Carolina going for Obama unless a higher than expected young voter turnout is seen--but it would have to be incredibly high.
  • Florida, much to the chagrin of Obama, Biden, and the Clinton's hardwork, will be McCain's. The argument there has rested on the hands of older jewish voters and Cubans. I don't see those two groups picking Obama over McCain at this time, but it will be closer than most think.
  • Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada will all go to Obama, making tremendous inroads into Red territory. Virginia was quickly seen as a potential newcomer to the Democratic column soon after Obama did so well in its exurbs and high-tech ally, but these three Red states have been inching toward Obama throughout the summer, and now remain solidly on his side.
  • Ohio, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, the working-class, manufacturing belt, will all go to Obama. Michigan and Ohio will probably show the widest margin of victory, with Pennsylvania being closer than expected due to Murtha's dumbass remarks and McCain's persistent presence there.
  • Minnesotta will go to McCain, but only barely, and because of the presence his Convention, and the unveiling of the Palin pitbull that stills linger in the cold, pragmatic air.
  • Iowa will turn Blue, and Missouri will be close enough to be considered a gimme-state come 2012.
  • Indiana will go to McCain, and by wider margins than in other states in the region.
In the end, I believe Obama will win the popular vote, around 56% of it, and claim 301 electoral votes to McCain's 237. If a state like Florida, or Indiana tips toward the Obama column, this will be a tremendous landslide. If it ends up coming out as I predict, Obama will have a mandate for a first term president unheard of since Ronald Reagan in 1980. No wonder Obama has admiration for Reagan transformative presence in history.

lhp

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