Tuesday, November 11, 2008

The Change that comes with an Obama Presidency


The dust is settling, the polls are dimming, and the election junkies are going through withdrawals--we are, believe me.  What to do with the ashes of this election and the seeds of the upcoming Obama presidency?  What else, but speculate!

The election of Barack Obama is not limited to a change of party in power.  This is almost an afterthought, since Barack never really embodied a Democratic mantra as much as he did a Liberal tag.  Neither ever delineated his appeal or approach.  As a founding member of pragmatic progressivism, President-elect Obama has an opportunity to sit on a throne brimmed with unprecedented power, supported by new momentous alliances, and responding to a hunger for reform and innovation not seen since 1932.

Barack Obama changed the way people voted during a time of crisis.  For the first time ever, a new president from a party that was not the incumbent's will assume office during a time of war.  Not since FDR won has a president from a non-incumbent party triumphed in a time of financial crisis with such a astounding political mandate. 

A Southern Strategy, where some Southern appeal was needed by a Democratic presidential candidate in order to be competitive, is now nothing more than a monument to the past 40 years.  Barack won three Southern states, while losing the rest by a larger margin than Kerry lost in 2004.  And still he obtained a technical landslide in the popular vote, and a sweeping electoral vote count.  No longer is an intellectual, an unaccented, or a man of non-Southern roots (vis a vis Jimmy Carter or Bill Clinton) an immediate underdog in a contest with the fully Southernized Republican party.

Barack changed demographic alliances (obtaining a higher percentage of the while male vote of than any Democratic candidate in decades), electoral maps (turning Red States into Swing States, and Swing States into Blue States), and the qualifications of a candidate (no longer do they have to be WASPs, or Washington fixtures, or of a wealthy upbringing).  Barack, before even washing his hand to take the oath on the Bible, has changed American politics forever.

With his diverse support base and an endorsement by the people that stretches evenly throughout the nation, Barack is entering his term as the most powerful president ever.  One thing Barack has to thank George Bush for (not many to count, I am sure) is the expansion of presidential powers he has bequeathed him thanks to his crony lawyers and his bossy nature toward Congress.  Sheaves of legal arguments ranging from torture to military courts to international agreements produced by Bush loyalists are now the custody of Barack Obama.  A bullied Congress, lurching at the beck and call of the President, is now the property of Barack Obama.  If Barack learns how to wield the sword, he will have the best chances of slaying the mightiest of dragons. 

Barack has power, a political mandate, and the urgency a crisis and war provide to use at his disposal.  He can either become a run of the mill president who muddles through crises and makes some modest changes to our politics and policy, like Nixon or Carter, vulnerable to having his weak legacy contested by the following generations.  Or he can flex his will and skill and attempt greatness, and possibly achieve it just like Franklin Roosevelt, Abraham Lincoln, or Ronald Reagan did.  Their legacies were strong went they left office, and have become a thing of veneration ever since by those who agree and disagree with them.  Barack already has a generation rapt and ready to chip in.  JFK had the same problem/opportunity.  If he takes note (which I am sure he has, as the lover of history that he is), Obama will wield that double-edged sword with skill.  He can change the horizon, as he has changed our expectations, but only if he makes change a virtue and not just a slogan.

lhp


Thursday, November 06, 2008

Obama's Win: A Dream, Within Reach


This is just too beautiful to describe in words.

lhp

Wednesday, November 05, 2008

Purple USA


Obama was on to something.  Notice how the United States has embraced the blue and the purple.  He has engineered a tectonic shift in American politics.

lhp

Mr. President


I am still having trouble assessing the weight and importance of this moment.  I am just happy.

lhp

Tuesday, November 04, 2008

Key Things to Look For Tonight


It's election day. I know I am not the only one with their stomach tied three knots and a half. But I am sane enough (at the moment) to give my take on what are some of the keys things to look out for as the results roll in tonight. So lets look at the trees, AND the forest:
  • Virginia, North Carolina, and Indiana--oh my!: These may be the earliest predictors of what type of election this will be: a landslide, a cliff-hanger, or a reasonable rout. If Obama wins Virginia, expect at the very least, at reasonable spanking of McCain; this goes the same if he manages to win Indiana. If he wins North Carolina, then expect a landslide of at least 8 pts in the popular vote, and 100 electoral votes, against McCain. However, if Obama loses all three, then we may be in for the long-haul.
  • State of Brotherly Love: McCain is betting the farm on this state...that and Sarah Palin's wardrobe. If he wins PA, his campaign will feel reinvigorated, and he will be as spry as a spring chicken.
  • Men, Men, Men: How will Obama do with the male vote? Especially, white men? A big lead means a major shift in electoral demographics that have been in place since LBJ.
  • Turnout: So much is hanging on how many first-time, young, African-American and independent voters come out to vote. All of these groups are typically Obama supporters, so a large turnout from them means a lot of support for Obama. In Indiana, for example, Lake County, where the predominantly African-American city of Gary is located, is still very within Obama's reach if that county votes in high numbers.
  • What about a landslide? A popular vote and an electoral vote landslide is a possibility for Obama. If these happens, this will be the first time since Ronald Reagan in 1980 that a such a landslide has occurred, without an incumbent president in the race.
Stay tuned. I sure will.

lhp

Monday, November 03, 2008

My Journey With Barack Obama


Less than 24hrs from now, a new page in history will be written. If either McCain or Obama win, the Bush presidency will be writing its final paragraphs, and the new president will try to right the wrongs of its legacy. In less than 24hrs, the whirlwind election year(s) will come to a close, and the victor will hopefully raise up the energies of those of us who are a little drained from this electoral marathon.

It was a year and a couple of months ago when I first signed up to be a part of this election. Back in August of 2007, I signed up to help Barack's longshot campaign surge against the Clinton juggernaut. At that point, I knew Barack fairly well. I knew he was not a liberal diety, like Kucinich; he was not a populist warrior, like Edwards; and he was not a veteran of Washington powerplays, like Hillary.

I was involved in the Kerry campaign, but for peculiar reasons. In 2004, Kerry ran away with the Democratic nomination, not because he was the best, most liked, or coolest candidate. He won because he was the luckiest. And after that, he grew in popularity in large part because he was "not Bush". I signed up to help him out mosty out of that negative trait: he was not the guy currently in office. I campaigned for him out of my hate for the Bush years and the wreck it was making out my country. I know I am not the only one who was fueled by that passion when supporting Kerry. Being not Bush took Kerry so far. As Truman once said: given the choice between a real Republican and a fake one, people will go for the real one. Kerry failed to make the case he was neither. When I signed up to Barack's campaign, my motives were not out of hate, at all. He was unique, and he was inspiring. I can't remember the last time I heard myself or anyone say that about anyone, much less a politician.

I first heard of Barack shortly before the 2004 Democratic Convention, when I heard from friends in Illinois about this skinny black dude who was really smart and likable. Then I heard his speech, loved it, saw Kerry lose, felt depressed for awhile, and forgot about this Barack fellow.

As part of my recuperation process, I started looking forward to 2008. 4 more years and he is out of here, I kept telling myself in 2004. I remembered the guy who won a Senate seat in Illinois and was a fresh new face in Washington--for more than the fact that he was the only black Senator in the whole damn place. I started doing research on him. And kept reading about him. And on and on.

Barack. What a funny name, I remember thinking. Too bad he probably will wont run until 2012, I thought. GOD! That is so long from now. Deep down, I hoped he would run in 2008, but feared that his slim Washington experience (a good and bad thing all at once) would hurt his chances of going against the likes of Hillary, or Al, or John, or other party elders.

But he did. And I followed. Carefully at first. I knew I disagreed with him on a few issues (death penalty, some immigration policies), but heard him and liked what I heard. His views have always been pragmatic, following no particular doctrine, and never trying to make one of his own. As I heard him, campaigned for him, and he campaigned for himself, I found him to be very human. He avoided pitching anything like a salesman with catchy soundbites and easy to digest answers. He took his time and when you saw him talk you knew he was always thinking. If I had to summarize why I found him so compelling, it would be because I saw his insatiable curiosity and I saw him evolve everyday. Like me, he expected the best of outcomes, but prepared for all the others.

Despite my faith in him as a person and as a candidate, I was a sober-enough thinker to understand the obstacles he was up against, even back then during the politica honey-moon . The first was a Hillary campaign that seemed to have no holes, no weakpoints, and no lack of ambition. Soon enough, this machine became rusty, tired, and outmaneuvered by the powerful flexibility of the Obama campaign. Barack, having assembled an amazing political team, stood his ground, maintained his message, and never returned the low punches Hillary threw. She wanted a dog fight, he wanted a brutally honest comparison. Keeping his cool like he always has, Barack irritated, and eventually disrupted, the Hillary campaign.

The unrelenting sense of 'cool' Barack exudes has torn down more than one political heavyweight. First Hillary, and along with her, Bill, then the punditry that fenced his campaign away from blue-collar and women voters, and then, hopefully, if tomorrow turns out to be a culmination of a two-year buildup, McCain and the old Right. McCain's ire and Palin's snarky divisiveness, have been unable to dent Barack's cool. It is almost impossible to take down an opponent that never really lets you see him sweat. Like Joe DiMaggio used to say, never show them the butterflies.

As Barack goes, so will his movement. They say there is no second-act in politics, and that may be true--if you keep acting in a political theater. Barack has a movement behind him the likes of Martin Luther King and Cesar Chavez. People are mobilized and ready for involvement. He may not run again, but his influence in American politics will not fade away soon. The day I signed up to be a volunteer coordinator for his campaign over a year ago, I remember calling everyone I knew and telling them to meet with me to talk about Barack. Most of them sympathized with me, but let me know Hillary was the obvious choice, Barack had no chance. I pushed on and kept the faith. As Hillary pushed, and McCain growled, and Palin bullied, I believed more and more in Barack by how he responded, by taking the high-road. Now, at the very least, people I know respect Barack.

He is not flawless. He is, in the end, a politician, and he knows you must flex muscle in order to get gains. He is apt at finding people that help make him a better candidate, and hopefully a more skillfull executive. He has flaws, like his delayed decision-making, his thickening, but still fairly thin skin, and his reserved character. He can empathize with you, but he can make it very hard for you to do the same for him. He comes off as emotionally detached, aloof of his own pains and unwilling to show you the sweat. He is more of a general than a brother-in-arms. He wont cross the street to greet you, but he will wait for you to come to him. He may, in the end, be a tad cocky. At the core, however, he stays the same. It is this value system and character that makes his stand out.

At recent Barack rallies, when he mentions McCain or Palin, or their tried an failed policies of the past, people boo. Unlike the hateful heckling that has gone on in McCain/Palin rallies, where people yell "Terrorist" and "Kill Him" when Barack's name is mentioned, and neither McCain or Palin do anything to reprimand them, Barack does. Shushing the boos, he reminds his supporters what should substitute rancor: civic duty.

"You don't need to boo; you just need to vote"

This is why I still have faith in Barack.

lhp